Future fad or popular wines

[Randy Caparoso]

Fad. One thing about markets on the verge of sophistication is that fads per se become less likely than basic common sense. For instance, it used to be a fad to drink bottled water. Now people drink it as a matter of course for reasons of taste and health. Risotto, pasta, sushi, vine ripened tomatoes, and goat cheese used to be fads. Now people eat these things -- and much more -- because they appreciate them for what they are. Good, basic things to eat.

The wine market, of course, is not quite there. There's obviously still a lot for people to learn, and unlearn, to get beyond the idea of drinking things just because it's the thing to do. But we're a lot closer, from what I've personally observed, than we were 25 years ago. Many of the guys who I know first got "into" wine 25 years ago were heavy into red Bordeaux, white Burgundy and top shelf Cabernet Sauvignons. But in recent years, many of these same guys are "discovering" top rate Chilean Cabernet Sauvignons, Oregon Pinot Noirs, and even the myriads of wines of France's Languedoc-Roussillon. This is significant because such wines were considered somewhat low class 25 years ago. These guys weren't aware of the fact that they were being faddish -- only "traditionalists." But the fact that they can see quality in places they would never have ever considered before is, to me, a demonstration of an even higher level of sophistication.

Everyone knows that the overall market in the U.S. is enthralled with California Chardonnay and Cabernet Sauvignon at the moment. This is somewhat ironic, considering the fact that there was a slight lapse in interest in Cabernets in the '80s, and it wasn't even until the mid '80s that Chardonnay became popular. White Zinfandel was huge during the '80s and early '90s; now, obviously, it is slightly on the wane, and many of the producers who used to turn virtually all of their crop into White Zinfandel are having no problem selling it as "red" Zinfandel. Again, another irony -- considering the fact that big, red Zins were a minor rage in the late '70s, and a surprising one in the late '90s.

All such observations tell me, for one, one thing: the market is always in flux, but becoming less and less susceptible to fads but more susceptible to wines of genuine and intrinsic quality. I've been buying and selling wines since the mid '70s and have tried many a wine type in hopes of hopping onto the latest rage before it escapes me. With that in mind, my observations:

1. The intrinsic quality of "classic" varietals like Cabernet Sauvignon and Chardonnay is such that they are likely to remain immune to ebbs and flows of market trends.

2. You could probably say the same for Merlot and Pinot Noir -- both varietals which enjoyed surges in popularity and identification beginning in the late '80s. Because of their natural quality and value on the table (especially the food versatile Pinot Noir), most likely they're here to stay. In short, they are beyond faddism.

3. The quality of Sauvignon Blancs have always been their moderate alcohol, crisp acidity and intense flavor; and these qualities do not go away. In the late '70s and early '80s, we actually sold more Sauvignon Blanc in our restaurants than Chardonnay -- a situation which quickly changed. However, because of their food compatibility and quality dependability, Sauvignon Blancs have always remained steady sellers on our wine lists. Maybe not huge sellers, but important nonetheless. Therefore, I classify Sauvignon Blanc as something that is here to stay -- not as a fad, but more of a steady classic.

4. Riesling, on the other hand, is a varietal which enjoyed immense popularity in the late '70s and early '80s, but has been greatly underappreciated and undersold up until the past year or two. So in the near-future, Riesling, if anything, is most likely to post sales of fad-like proportions. Its crucial quality is its lightness and zesty acidity, which make it especially valuable in the context of food --especially Asian, Middle Eastern and Indian influenced foods, which everyone is getting into these days. Most major restaurants in the U.S. still have incredibly weak selections of Rieslings, both dry and fruity/sweet; but slowly but surely, I'm sure we will all be forced to change over the next few years.

5. Among "other" whites, Pinot Gris is without a doubt the strongest already. About five years ago we began to sell tons of this crisp, minerally, fragrant, highly food-friendly varietal -- decidely more than Sauvignon Blanc at the moment -- from places as extant as Oregon, Italy, Germany, California, France, and even New Zealand. While also from the Pinot family, the potential of Pinot Blanc looks bright, but its more medium acidity and narrower fruit profile will probably never make it a real trendsetter. Gewurztraminer and Chenin Blanc, on the other hand, were much more popular 20 years ago, barely escaping total anonymity over the past decade; and I really don't anticipate this situation changing over the next few years since varietals like Riesling and Sauvignon Blanc can offer many of the qualities of those grapes (pretty perfumes and moderate bodies), but in more palatable form. Rhone varietals like Viognier and Roussanne have been interesting -- we began selling them seven, eight years ago, but the reception continues to be mild because of the limitations of their low acid and high alcohol structures (which limit their food compatibilities). Some of the lesser known varietals which may surprise everyone may include Gruner Veltliner (lively acidity and intense fruitiness), Marsanne (moderate acidity but solid stone fruit flavors), Semillon (medium acid, but powerful perfumes), and maybe even Albarino (crisp edged but soft fruitiness) from Spain. I have my own pet "hopes" such as Grechetto (a densely extracted, fine and lively varietal from Central Italy), Rolle (beautifully fragrant, kitchen herby Southern French grape), Biancolella (lovely, light, minerally varietal from the Bay of Naples), and Baroque (exotically fruited varietal of South-West France); but I have to be honest with myself and admit that they probably will never achieve notoriety beyond their respective regions. Others may cite Arneis (sharp but lively), Cortese (stony crisp), and Greco (lean and licoricey); but for similar reasons, I don't think so. Finally, Muscat Blanc (or Moscato) will always enjoy a low level popularity as simple but highly useful wines; particularly because they can be lovely in so many ways (sweet or dry, at alcohol levels from 4% to 18%, as table wines, sparkling wines, frizzante style wines, and even fortified and "ice wine" styles).

6. Among "other" reds, Sangiovese and Cabernet Franc have shown distinctive signs of become much more visible on the market. Sangiovese because of its complex and zesty, food versatile character; and Cabernet Franc because of its moderate alcohol and tannin, yet intense and juicy flavor, in comparison to its more famous offspring, Cabernet Sauvignon. It has become increasingly easier over the past five years to sell Cabernet Franc in particular because people love the taste of Cabernet but not necessarily the heavy weight and tannin; plus the fact that producers in California as well as in France are getting better at crafting more focused, sweetly scented and less vegetal styles. Both Cabernet Franc and Sangiovese, of course, have also proven to be extremely attractive when blended with varietals like Cabernet Sauvignon, Merlot, Malbec and Petit Verdot.

7. The "hottest" red during the past year, though, has not been Sangiovese, and it has not been Zinfandel or Cabernet Franc, but Syrah (or Shiraz, as they are called in Australia). This qualifies as something of a fad, since the popular style appears to be big and sweetly fruity -- similar to the profile appealing to lovers of big Zins. No matter, since Syrah is indeed a classic varietal; and although the preferred style may eventually change (probably become more moderate in size, but still spicy and intense), it is bound to become a permanent fixture in restaurant and home cellars.

8. After this, there is a host of red varietals with great promise. The promising "other" reds are probably more important than the "other" whites since the more sophisticated any market becomes, the more red wine is consumed. Before the modern wine boom of the late '60s, for instance, red varietals accounted for some 85% of the world's wine production. At its highest levels of consumption, big, established markets like France, Italy, Spain and Chile have been dominated by red wine sales. If the U.S. ever becomes as big in per capita consumption, red is also bound to be the dominant color of wine choice. Therefore, there is enormous potential in genuinely fine and balanced varietals such as Tempranillo, Malbec, Grenache, Carmenere, and even Petit Verdot, Lemberger (also called Blue Franc), Zweigelt, Touriga Nacional and Teroldego. I believe the market interest in Italian varietals like Nebbiolo, Barbera and Dolcetto will sustain, but at very low levels due to the somewhat severe and/or acidic qualities of the grapes. Ditto for Petite Sirah and Carignane, but because of their somewhat limiting, primitive, high tannin/phenolic/alcohol character. Earthy and thick tannin French varietals such as Mourvedre and Tannat will always remain very important, but mostly for use as blending grapes since they tend to be less attractive when standing on their own.

The long term "fad?" In my opinion, that will be the concept of diversity -- diversity of varietal type, style and blending, and diversity of vineyard sourcing. The world's gastronomy is become increasingly global by the minute. There's absolutely no reason not to expect tastes in wine to head in the same direction!

[This message has been edited by Randy Caparoso (edited 06-04-2000).]